Disease Dynamics
My research in disease dynamics uses mathematical and computational models to investigate how infectious diseases spread through structured populations. I am particularly interested in how movement, geography, contact patterns, uncertainty, and historical evidence can be combined to understand epidemic processes that are difficult or impossible to study directly.
One major focus of this work is the spread of smallpox in Australia following colonial exposure. In this research, I use stochastic, multi-patch epidemiological models to test competing hypotheses about where the disease entered, how quickly it could have moved, and which regions were likely affected. This modelling work is combined with historical observations to estimate the likely spatial and demographic consequences of the epidemic.
More broadly, this research area reflects my interest in using simple, mechanistic models to identify the processes that matter most in disease spread. Rather than treating epidemics as purely statistical patterns, I aim to build models that represent transmission, movement, population structure, and uncertainty explicitly.
Because some of this work concerns the catastrophic effects of introduced disease on Aboriginal communities, I view modelling as only one part of a broader truth-telling process. Mathematical models can help clarify what is plausible, but they must be interpreted alongside historical evidence, Indigenous knowledge, and the continuing consequences of colonial invasion.